Rene — Iran is no Iraq and the US should leave it well alone
Topic(s): Iran | Comments Off on Rene — Iran is no Iraq and the US should leave it well aloneIran is no Iraq and the US should leave it well alone
Amir Taheri
A discontented generation could provide the answer that the hawks are seeking
The Times/UK
June 18, 2003
The words `regime change’ are being uttered again. Washington hawks
concerned about Iran’s nuclear capacity are urging the overthrow of
its Islamist Government. These hawks confuse Iran with Saddam
Hussein’s Iraq. Iraq was a mere torture chamber for a brutal
dictator. Unlike in Iraq, there is no need for a military
confrontation in Iran, a country with a well-developed opposition,
which allows a lively debate between hardliners and moderates, and has
a strong chance of democratisation without US intervention. Iran
resembles a double-headed eagle, trying to fly in opposite directions
at the same time. One head represents the Khomeinist revolution, with
its forlorn ambition of exporting a bankrupt ideology and creating an
Islamic superpower to confront the American `Great Satan’ and
establish Islam as the only faith of mankind.
The other head represents the Iranian nation-state, one of the oldest
in the world, that has little interest in Islamic piety, let alone
militancy. For instance Tehran, with a population of 12 million, has
just over 700 mosques, compared with 2,600 in Riyadh, the Saudi
capital, with two million inhabitants. A poll conducted by a
state-owned company in Tehran in February revealed that 70 per cent of
Iranians had a favourable view of the US (which is thus more popular
in Iran than in Britain, let alone in France and Germany).
More than 60 per cent of Iran’s population of 70 million is aged under
30 and cannot clearly remember life before the Islamist revolution of
1979. The country is unable to provide the educational, leisure and
job opportunities its discontented youth needs. In terms of disposable
individual income the average Iranian today is 50 per cent poorer than
in 1977. A report by the International Monetary Fund on brain-drain
puts it at No 1 among 91 developing nations. Each year up to 180,000
highly educated Iranians emigrate, mostly to North America, and there
are more Iranian doctors in Canada than in Iran. Youth unemployment
hovers around 30 per cent. This discontented generation, yearning for
a more liberal and open society, should give the US cause for hope of
evolutionary regime change.
For the past eight days, thousands of students have been protesting
against the regime in Iran. Starting in Tehran University, the
movement has spread to campuses in other cities. It has also attracted
some middle-class support, while industrial workers in a number of
cities have held walkouts in solidarity.
The Khomeinist Establishment is no longer strong enough to crush its
opponents, as it routinely did throughout the 1980s and 1990s. The
armed and police forces have made it clear that they will not shoot
anti-regime demonstrators and the regime’s hired thugs, known as the
Followers of the Party of God (Ansar Hezbollah), are not numerous
enough or confident enough to beat opponents and disperse
demonstrations. Yet Iran is not on the verge of a second revolution or
civil war, as some commentators suggest. The volcano, hissing
menacingly, is unlikely soon to erupt.
The students’ demand for constitutional change seems to have some
support within the Establishment. More than two thirds of the members
of the Islamic Majlis (parliament) have published an open letter to
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the spiritual leader, to endorse the call for
the separation of mosque and State. Another open letter, signed by
250 intellectuals with impeccable Khomeinist credentials, goes further
by calling for the establishment of a Western-style democratic system.
A consensus may yet emerge inside Iran for change through a
referendum. One popular idea is to remove two articles of the
Constitution and amend six others, thus separating the mosque from the
State. Under the proposals the position of Supreme Guide, held by
Ayatollah Khamenei, would be abolished, allowing Iran to become a
`normal’ republic with a president and parliament elected by and
accountable to the people.
Today hardly anyone, even within the Establishment, is prepared to
defend the principle of Velayat-e Faqih (Custodianship of the Cleric)
under which a mullah, the Supreme Guide, is regarded as the embodiment
of divine will on earth and given absolute powers.
The claim last week by Khamenei that the demonstrations were organised
by American mercenaries was part of an initial panic reaction by a
frightened regime. Since then wiser counsel seems to have
prevailed. Now, even Khamenei’s associates admit that the
pro-democracy movement is too broad-based to be dismissed as part of
the pressure that the Bush Administration is exerting on the regime.
The American presence in countries neighbouring Iran, especially Iraq
and Afghanistan, has put the fear of God in the Khomeinist
Establishment. This does not mean, however, that there is any support
for an aggressive posture by the US among the demonstrators. The
threat of American military action could backfire by triggering an
Iranian nationalistic reflex, giving succour to the hardliners.
As Iran enters a delicate phase in its internal political evolution,
it is important that the US and the EU be on the same side in dealing
with Tehran. Pressure on such issues as nuclear non-proliferation and
Tehran’s sponsorship of terrorism must be accompanied by support for
the prodemocracy movement, and promises of aid and trade in exchange
for reform.
Dealing with Iran requires tact and patience. Broadly speaking, Iran
is on the right path, although zigzags and even temporary reversals
cannot be ruled out. Less chatter about regime change by hot-heads in
Washington circles would help Iran’s moderates.
The author is an Iranian commentator on Middle Eastern affairs.