Counterpunch — Another Civil War in Lebanon?
Comments Off on Counterpunch — Another Civil War in Lebanon?Another Civil War in Lebanon?
Will Hezbollah Hand Israel Its 6th Defeat?
By FRANKLIN LAMB
http://www.counterpunch.org/lamb03232007.html
March 23, 2007
A recent poll in Lebanon suggests deep pessimism about the chances of
avoiding another civil war. Plenty of ‘wise owls’ here think civil war
is just a matter of time.
No less an oracle than Tarek, the doorman at the Alexandria Hotel in
Ashhifyeh, where the Israeli Military Command had it’s HQ during its
1982 invasion says Civil war is certain. So does the sous-chef at Chez
Paul’s where Sharon, Bashir Gemayel and Eli Hobeika used to meet and
discuss ‘business’. And many in Lebanon’s Parliament agree.
For months now large wooden crates have been arriving in various
locals in East Beirut and the mountains and hurriedly carried into
buildings and various party Headquarters, in violation of the 1989
Taif Accords which required local militias to disarm. (Rafik Hariri
exempted Hezbollah from Taif arguing that Hezbollah was not a militia
but the Lebanese resistance force since it only used its weapons
against Israel)
What’s in those boxes? Are they weapons? If so, who paid for them?
Hard to blame Iran and Syria this time since the recipients are their
sworn enemies and are itching to fight them both, or more precisely,
have Israel or the US act on their behalf.
What about all that promised Bush administration cash and weaponry to
shore up the Siniora regime? More than 200 million worth? It there a
glitch with the shipping agent and is some of it is going to local
addresses other than the “new robust Lebanese army”?
To know for sure, one would want to walk around the Gemezzeh
neighborhood in east Beirut around 2 in the morning near the rebuilt
Phalange Party HQ.where Baschir Gemeyal was blown up on September 14,
1982 and nose around a bit..
And what’s that frenetic activity behind the Walid Jumblatt’s estate
at El Moukhtara in the Chouf.? It has increased since his long meeting
with GW Bush a couple of weeks ago.
And those fine new military style boots and swagger one sees among
some of Saad Hariri’s March 14 movement young men. Armani or US Army
or Israeli issue?
Civil war may well be coming to Lebanon and there is currently plenty
of sectarian tension and hatred in Lebanon . Some surfaced in late
January when three Hezbollah supporters were killed. When the
beautiful widow and young children of 29 year old Adnan Shamas, who
was ambushed as he walked home following a visit to the opposition
created ‘tent city’ in downtown Beirut, appeared at his funeral there
were calls of “blood for blood.”
Sabra-Shatilla massacre participant Samir Geagea, now the leader of
the Lebanese Forces Militia and recently feted in Washington DC, beats
his chest and taunts Hezbollah’s Secretary-General with threats like
“Don’t you dare think Hassan Nassrallah that Beirut is Haifa
(referring to the July War) or else Lebanon is headed for the worst.”
Some in the opposition dismiss the Siniora government as nothing more
than ‘an organized crime syndicate that wants to turn Lebanon into
another Iraq,’ as Talal Arslan, an anti-government Druze leader
(breaking ranks with Jumblatt) recently roared. Many accuse the
government of functioning as agents of Israel and the Bush
administration and demand early elections and a greater share of
government posts for the growing anti-government coalition.
Other observers are concluding that Israel and the Bush administration
must foment a civil war in order not to ‘lose’ Lebanon and be driven
from the region.
Pro-Israel “tink tanks” (Robert Fisk’s label) argue that having
created a disaster for both the US and Israel in Iraq and Afghanistan,
and having failed miserably to destroy, much less seriously
damage. Hezbollah during the July War, both Olmert and Bush
desperately need a Lebanese civil war
Their reasoning is that if Bush and Olmert can provoke Hezbollah into
turning its guns on Lebanese rivals, which it has never done and
refuses to do,(Nasrallah recently declaring that “they can kill 1,000
of the opposition and we will still refuse to participate in a civil
war”) the US and Israel can invade, destroy the Lebanese resistance
and set up another ‘more sustainable’ government, to borrow a pet term
from Condoleezza Rice.
Other objectives expected to be achieve by another Lebanese Civil War
are to restore Israel’s deterrent credibility, intimidate the region
and occupied territories, create a opening to attack Syria and
conceivably go for a spectacular Trifecta and bomb Iran as well.
The other side of the coin.
Hassan Nassrallah and his allies have vowed to prevent a Civil War. In
this goal they have the support of elements (if not a majority) in all
the confessions and political parties.
Hezbollah has a habit to defeating Israel on the battle field and
increasingly in political circles and they may just prevail in
preventing a civil war.
Five brief examples:
1. The April 30, 1985 Israel withdrawal from Sidon, Tyre, Nabatieh,
and some Western Bekaa villages were the direct result of military
pressure from a new organization which was publicly announced on
February 16, 1985 and calling itself Hezbollah. Interestingly the same
day Hezbollah went public Israel began its withdrawal and it was
Hezbollah’s first victory over the Israeli military.
2. July 1993. Israel’s “operation accountability”. Same Israeli goals.
Destroy Hezbollah, break its connection with the populace and pressure
the Lebanese government to fight Hezbollah. The UN counted 1,224 air
raids and more than 28,000 US shells fired into Lebanon by Israel,
killing more than 150 civilians, wounding more than 500 and displacing
more than 200,000 from 120 south Lebanon villages. In retaliation
Hezbollah fired Katusha rockets for 10 hours into Galilee settlements
creating what Agence France Press of July 25, 1993 called a ‘hell of
shelling” Israel had enough and contacted Washington to arrange a
ceasefire.
3. April 11, 1996 Israel’s ‘Operation Grapes of Wrath’. Same Israeli
goals. Israel attacked Tallat al-Kayyal in Baalbek and expanded its
attack the next against the Lebanese army base in Tyre and
neighborhoods in Beirut. Israel killed more than 250
civilians. Hundreds of thousands were displaced, more than 7,000 homes
partially or completely destroyed.
Hezbollah had planned well and Katyusha rockets were fired on Israeli
forces and settlements on a daily basis. As in 1993, Israel asked the
Clinton administration to have Warren Christopher arrange a ceasefire
which began at 6 pm on April 27, 1996. Hezbollah’s victory cost Shimon
Peres, Clinton’s candidate, to lose the May 29, 1996 Israeli
election. Interestingly on March 23, 2007 Peres acknowledged before
the Winograd Commission looking into Israel’s performance in the July
War, that he would not have invaded Lebanon and tried to defeat
Hezbollah in July of 2006. Peres told the Commission: “We can’t defeat
Hezbollah unless we burn every inch of Lebanon”.
4. May 24, 2000. After 22 years of occupying more than 10% of Lebanon,
Hezbollah forced Israel to withdraw from all but the Shebaa farms in
one night, abandoning its planned phased withdrawal as well as its
agents, the South Lebanon’s Army. Contrary to Israeli scare tactics,
there was no Hezbollah retal iation against Lebanese
collaborators. This fact earned Hezbollah the respect of all Lebanon’s
confessions, not least, the Christian community.
5. Hezbollah’s victory in the 2006 July war is common knowledge and
discussed in the new volume: The Price We Pay: A Quarter Century of
Israel’s use of American Weapons in Lebanon, available at
_ngolebanon@aol.com_ (mailto:ngolebanon@aol.com) .
The consequences of these five Israeli defeats have been unacceptable
for Israel. Its invincibility myth is now the butt of late night TV
jokes. The Hezbollah led Lebanese resistance has caught the
imagination of much of the World including the occupied Palestinian
territories. Israel and the Bush administration believe the only
solution is another Civil War Lebanon so they can destroy
Hezbollah. As former US envoy John Bolton made clear to the BBC on
March 22, 2007 he also favors ‘another round’.
Bolton is aware of the recent reports sent to the US Senate
Intelligence Committee in February, 2007 which suggests that the CIA
believes Israel may well cease to exist in its current form by the
centenary of the 1947-48 Nakba which led to the establishment of the
Jewish state. . The Report predicts a significant increase in the
current emigration from Israel mainly to the US, Western Europe and
Russia and continuing decline in immigration to Israel. Bolton blames
Hezbollah. But a Congressional staff member offered the CIA view on
March 21, 2007:
“History teaches us that resistance eventually trumps occupation every
time and Israel has never seriously considered a just peace with the
Palestinians or its Arab neighbors. There is no rational reason to
think that they will now. It’s the Masada syndrome. Fanatics run
Israel and they would rather destroy themselves than give back what
they stole from the Palestinians”.
“Persia rising, Zionism sinking”! As another Congressional staff
member put it.
As Israel continues its nearly daily violations of Lebanese
sovereignty, the main concern of the US Intelligence analysts is not a
nuclear Iran, but rather how to get Israel’s finger off its 350+
nuclear warheads. Some US Defense Intelligence Agency analysts believe
that Israel will indeed try to use its arsenal and that a nuclear
holocaust is likely.
Rapture seeking Christian fundamentalists told the March 2007 AIPAC
conference in Washington DC that when this happens it will be God’s
will and any surviving Jews will then convert to Jesus or burn in
hell. Either way works for them.
Few in the US intelligence community doubt that if Israel fires its
nuclear arsenal that their targets will include America. Why would
Israel not spare the US after 60 years of support including total aid
in excess of one trillion dollars? The reason is because Israel sees
the American public as getting ” all wobbly” (read: slightly more
informed thanks to the diligent efforts of dozens of courageous
pro-Palestinian/pro Arab and pro Peace interest groups in the US as
well as the Iraq catastrophe) and will sooner rather than later, dump
Israel.
Freezing Israel’s nuclear trigger is the question of the
hour. Meanwhile, Israel and the Bush administration continue trying to
ignite an Iraq style Civil War in Lebanon. Hezbollah and their
Christian and Muslim allies are trying to prevent one. Which side will
prevail?
Ladies and gentlemen, the bell has sounded for Round Six: Israel vs.
Hezbollah. The arena is holding its collective breadth. The outcome is
uncertain. To date the score is Hezbollah 5, Israel 0. On the issue of
a Civil War in Lebanon, place your bets please.
Franklin Lamb has been in Lebanon researching a book for the past nine
months. Hezbollah: a brief Guide for Beginners in expected in early
summer, 2007. He can be reached at _fplamb@gmail.com_
(mailto:fplamb@gmail.com)